Economic and financial analysts have expressed optimism that Nigeria’s economy will outperform the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) revised growth forecast of 3.9 percent for 2025, citing solid macroeconomic reforms and improved fiscal stability.
In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released during the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C., the IMF raised Nigeria’s growth projection from 3.4 percent to 3.9 percent for 2025 and 4.1 percent for 2026, attributing the upward review to stronger macroeconomic fundamentals.
The IMF also acknowledged that the country’s ongoing economic reforms—particularly in exchange rate unification and monetary tightening—have contributed to a steady decline in inflation.
The Fund’s Africa Department Director, Abebe Selassie, commended Nigeria’s reform measures, noting that inflation dropped to 18.02 percent in September 2025 from 20.12 percent in August.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this marks the sixth consecutive month of disinflation, driven largely by lower food prices. Food inflation, in particular, fell from 21.87 percent to 16.87 percent within the same period.
The Nigerian stock market responded positively to the IMF’s outlook, with investors injecting N389 billion into equities, pushing total market capitalization to N94.17 trillion as trading sentiment turned bullish on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
Selassie attributed the declining inflation trend to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) decision to adopt more orthodox policies, including halting excessive government borrowing and raising interest rates by over 800 basis points to strengthen liquidity management.
Don’t Miss This: Oyin Olugbile Wins $100,000 NLNG Nigeria Prize for Literature 2025
Experts have described the latest IMF projection as an affirmation of Nigeria’s economic resilience and a signal that the country is on the path to sustained recovery.
Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr. Ayo Teriba, stated that the nation’s growth trajectory suggests it could surpass the IMF’s estimates.
He emphasized that Nigeria’s challenge is no longer how to stimulate growth but how to sustain it through consistent reforms in liquidity, stability, and growth.
Teriba noted that reforms have bolstered foreign reserves from below $4 billion to over $23 billion, stabilized the naira for ten straight months, and helped ease inflationary pressures.
He advised the government to focus on attracting long-term foreign direct investment (FDI) instead of relying on short-term portfolio inflows, urging the expansion of public-private partnerships in key infrastructure sectors such as ports, refineries, and power transmission.
Mallam Kasimu Kurfi, Managing Director of APT Securities & Fund, observed that the IMF’s growth projection aligns with the government’s target of over 4 percent GDP growth. He highlighted Nigeria’s population advantage and reform-driven stability as key incentives for foreign investors.
“The fundamentals are strong — low inflation, a stable exchange rate, and improving food supply. These indicators are aligning for a stronger economy,” Kurfi stated.
Similarly, Managing Director of Arthur Steven Asset Management, Olatunde Amolegbe, said the IMF’s upward revision was expected, given the renewed investor confidence inspired by government reforms. He urged the administration to continue efforts to diversify the economy, lower living costs, and cushion the effects of reforms on citizens.
Dr. Chijioke Ekechukwu, Executive Chairman of Bristol Group, also praised the reform efforts, noting that policy consistency has reduced volatility in the foreign exchange market and restored confidence among business operators.
Experts agreed that sustained policy discipline, consistent implementation, and long-term investor confidence are essential for Nigeria to maintain growth above 4 percent over the next 20 quarters — a threshold they say would ensure durable economic recovery.
