China’s dominant role in global critical mineral supply chains is facing fresh examination after export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo disrupted cobalt flows and tightened global supply, revealing a deeper vulnerability in Beijing’s resource strategy.
Although China accounted for roughly 78 percent of global refined cobalt output in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency, its domestic mining capacity remains limited, forcing heavy reliance on imported raw materials. That dependence is now being tested.
Kinshasa, the world’s leading supplier of cobalt intermediates, halted exports in February last year before rolling out a quota system.
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The restrictions significantly slowed shipments to Chinese processors, with exports nearly grinding to a halt in the final quarter.
Under the revised framework, Congo limited fourth-quarter 2025 exports to 18,125 metric tonnes and introduced a broader 2026 quota of 96,600 tonnes, which includes a 10 percent strategic reserve.
Delays in implementing the new system meant almost no cobalt left the country during the final months of last year.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, writing for The Cobalt Institute, reported that the first shipment under the updated regime departed only in January.
Given that deliveries typically take about three months to reach China, analysts expect supply tightness to persist in the near term.
The market response has been swift. Refined cobalt prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have jumped from around $10 per pound in early 2025 to approximately $25 per pound.
Strains have been particularly severe in intermediate products such as cobalt hydroxide.
The payable rate, which stood at about 55 percent of the metal price in February, has climbed to 100 percent, reflecting acute supply pressure.
To manage shortages, Chinese buyers have increasingly drawn from exchange inventories.
By the end of January, more than 3,250 tonnes — roughly 37 percent of stocks — had been withdrawn from warehouses linked to the Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange.
Alternative sources remain limited. Indonesia, where cobalt is produced as a by-product of nickel mining, is ramping up output, but projections suggest it will not fully compensate for Congo’s restrictions this year.
At the same time, geopolitical competition over Congo’s mineral wealth is intensifying.
The United States has increased its engagement in Central Africa, supporting a peace agreement between Kinshasa and Rwanda and paving the way for expanded Western investment.
In December, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced plans to acquire a stake in a new joint venture that will market the Congolese government’s share of copper and cobalt, granting American buyers priority purchasing rights.
Infrastructure development is also emerging as part of the strategic contest.
A new rail corridor connecting Congo to Angola’s port of Lobito is positioning itself as an alternative to the Chinese-backed route linking the country to Dar es Salaam in Tanzania.
For Beijing, the developments underscore a broader structural risk. Even in sectors where it dominates processing capacity, China remains dependent on overseas mining inputs.
This pattern extends beyond cobalt to rare earth minerals, where key heavy elements are still sourced from Myanmar.
As global demand for battery metals accelerates, China’s reliance on foreign ore supplies could become an increasingly sensitive pressure point in the race for critical minerals.
