Nigeria’s food inflation rate declined sharply to 8.89 percent year-on-year in January 2026, marking its lowest level in more than 14 years, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The new figure represents the first time in 128 months that food inflation has returned to single digits, with the last comparable level recorded in August 2011 at 8.66 percent.
In January 2025, food inflation stood at 29.63 percent, meaning the latest reading reflects a drop of 20.73 percentage points within one year.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by 6.02 percent in January, compared with a 0.36 percent decline in December 2025.
The statistics office attributed the moderation largely to falling average prices of key staples, including water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soybeans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon, and cassava.
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On a 12-month average basis, food inflation eased to 20.29 percent in January 2026, significantly below the 38.47 percent recorded in January 2025.
The latest data follows a prolonged surge between 2022 and 2024, when food inflation rose from 23.75 percent in December 2022 to 33.93 percent in December 2023, before peaking at 40.87 percent in June 2024.
Although it remained elevated at 29.63 percent in January 2025, the rate gradually slowed through the year, dropping to 10.84 percent in December 2025 before settling at 8.89 percent in January 2026.
Headline inflation also edged down slightly to 15.10 percent in January 2026 from 15.15 percent in December 2025, defying analysts’ projections that it could climb to 19 percent.
The Consumer Price Index fell to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in December, indicating a 3.8-point decrease.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation recorded a negative rate of 2.88 percent, compared with 0.54 percent in December, suggesting that average prices declined during the month.
Year-on-year headline inflation was 15.10 percent in January 2026, down from 27.61 percent in January 2025, making it the lowest level in over five years, since November 2020 when inflation stood at 14.89 percent.
However, the 12-month average CPI rose by 21.97 percent, 4.37 percentage points higher than the 17.59 percent recorded in January 2025.
Urban inflation slowed to 15.36 percent year-on-year in January 2026, compared with 29.45 percent a year earlier, while rural inflation declined to 14.44 percent from 25.04 percent over the same period.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, fell to 17.72 percent year-on-year from 25.27 percent in January 2025.
At the state level, Benue recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation at 22.48 percent, followed by Kogi at 20.98 percent and the Federal Capital Territory at 19.25 percent.
Ebonyi, Katsina, and Imo posted the lowest rates at 8.72 percent, 8.94 percent, and 10.61 percent respectively. For food inflation, Kogi led with 19.84 percent, followed by Benue and Adamawa, while Ebonyi, Abia, and Imo recorded the slowest increases in food prices.
Despite the easing figures, members of the Organised Private Sector urged caution.
Representatives of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists and the National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises said that while the pace of price increases may have slowed, the cost of living remains high.
National Vice President of the small-scale industrialists’ group, Kuti-George, attributed the marginal decline to increased agricultural production, particularly rice and cassava, alongside relative exchange rate stability, with the official rate hovering around ₦1,350 to the dollar.
He expressed optimism that price stability may continue, especially ahead of the fasting season.
However, NASME Director-General Eke Ubiji argued that the statistical improvement has not translated into tangible relief for consumers.
He maintained that both food and non-food items remain expensive, warning that government officials should avoid premature celebration, as the broader market still reflects the lingering effects of past inflation spikes.
Overall, while January’s figures signal a broad-based easing in price pressures, particularly in food costs, elevated 12-month averages suggest that the impact of earlier inflation surges continues to shape Nigeria’s cost of living.
