Artificial intelligence could raise the value of global trade by almost 40 percent by 2040, according to a new report from the World Trade Organization (WTO) released today.
The WTO’s World Trade Report 2025 highlights AI as one of the few positive forces amid current trade tensions, with the global system unsettled by the United States’ imposition of steep tariffs on trading partners.
“AI holds major promise to boost trade by lowering trade costs and reshaping the production of goods and services,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said while presenting the findings.
According to the WTO’s simulations, the integration of AI into production and trade could increase exports of goods and services by nearly 40 percent above current trends.
However, the report also warned of risks. Without proper policies, lower-income countries may fall behind.
WTO economists estimate that if these economies fail to close the digital divide, their income gains from AI would be limited to 8 percent by 2040, compared to 14 percent in higher-income economies.
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On the other hand, narrowing the digital infrastructure gap by half and embracing wider AI adoption could allow developing nations to match the benefits seen in wealthier states.
“One important question is whether AI will lift opportunities for all, or whether it will deepen existing inequalities and exclusion,” Okonjo-Iweala cautioned.
The WTO also noted a rise in restrictions on AI-related goods. By last year, nearly 500 restrictions were in place—mostly by higher- and middle-income countries—up sharply from 130 in 2012.
Despite these challenges, the organization maintains that with the right combination of trade, investment, and complementary policies, AI could create new opportunities for growth across all economies.
Image Credit:The Straits Times
