Nigeria’s $20 billion Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest, is grappling with operational setbacks as its gasoline unit is expected to remain offline for at least two to three months due to repairs.
According to industry intelligence firm IIR Energy, the outage, which began around August 29 after catalyst leaks were detected, may stretch beyond the anticipated timeframe given the scale of equipment replacements required.
The refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), is currently working toward restarting its 204,000 bpd Residue Fluidised Catalytic Cracking Unit (RFCCU) by September 20.
However, analysts caution that the complexity of repairs could cause further delays.
Earlier reporting by Reuters suggested the RFCCU could remain out of service for at least two weeks, raising parallels with outages seen in parts of the Middle East, where refineries have also struggled with similar technical issues.
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Despite the setback, the refinery has already altered global gasoline flows. Data from Kpler shows that EU and UK gasoline exports to Nigeria declined from about 200,000 bpd in 2024 to 120,000 bpd in the first half of 2025.
Meanwhile, the refinery has expanded its footprint in international markets, sending 90,000 metric tons of gasoline to Asia in June and recently dispatching two cargoes to the U.S. East Coast, its first to meet American fuel standards.
Market reactions have been swift. U.S. gasoline futures crack spreads surged nearly 13% this week, hitting their highest level since August 19, while profit margins in Northwest Europe jumped 23% to $19.31 per barrel as of Wednesday—the strongest levels since late June, according to LSEG data.
Traders say the Dangote outage has only tightened an already constrained market. “This just adds fuel to the fire,” one gasoline trader.
Since beginning crude processing in January 2024, the Dangote Refinery has been positioned as a game-changer for Africa’s energy independence.
Yet, this latest disruption underscores the scale of challenges that could determine how quickly Nigeria transitions from being a net fuel importer to a regional exporter.
Image Credit: Business Insider Africa
