Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast have raised concerns that above-average rainfall and persistent overcast conditions could increase flooding and disease risks during the final stages of the mid-crop harvest, with the anxiety compounding as the country moves toward its main harvest season. The warnings, reported as of June 22, 2026, come from the world’s largest cocoa producer at a structurally fragile moment for global supply. CrestAfrica
Excessive rains have flooded roads in several growing regions, cutting off farmers’ access to farms and ports. Beyond logistics, the sustained moisture has elevated the risk of brown rot disease on cocoa trees a condition that directly reduces yields and can compromise bean quality ahead of harvest. Cocoa prices responded immediately, surging to six-week highs as markets priced in the supply disruption risk.
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The weather instability is not uniform. In the western region of Soubre, 98.4 millimetres of rain fell in a single week in late May 57.1 mm above the five-year average. Farmers in Agboville and Abengourou reported similarly above-average precipitation. In Daloa, Bongouanou, and Yamoussoukro, rainfall remained below average but improved week-on-week, offering partial relief to growing conditions. The divergence between regions has made output projections unreliable.
The concern ahead of the main crop is structural, not seasonal. On June 10, Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed the formation of an El Niño weather pattern across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, stressing cocoa trees and suppressing yields. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 67% probability of a Super El Niño event this year. Early surveys of the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop already show below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees — a leading indicator of a weak main harvest, which begins in October.
StoneX cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 149,000 metric tonnes from a January forecast of 267,000 metric tonnes, citing El Niño risks. The 2025/26 surplus forecast was also revised downward, from 287,000 to 247,000 metric tonnes.
The pressures extend beyond weather. Ivory Coast cut cocoa farmers’ pay by 57% effective from the mid-crop harvest that began in March 2026. Ghana similarly cut the official price paid to its cocoa farmers by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 growing season. Both countries together produce more than half of the world’s cocoa supply. Many of the region’s cocoa trees are over 25 years old, reducing their productive capacity, while the spread of Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus and fungal disease outbreaks continue to compound yield losses across farms already under climate stress.
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