The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reaffirmed its projection of a 3.4% growth rate for Nigeria’s real GDP in 2025, maintaining its stance despite recent changes in how the country’s economic output is measured.
This update was shared in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report titled “Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty”, released on Tuesday, July 29, 2025.
Following a rebasing exercise by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) was revised to ₦372.8 trillion ($243 billion) for 2024—up from ₦314.02 trillion in 2023.
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The recalculation incorporated a broader scope of informal economic activity, expanding the statistical picture of Nigeria’s economy.
Nevertheless, the country remains the fourth-largest economy in Africa and has yet to regain its former top spot.
The IMF had previously revised Nigeria’s 2025 growth forecast upward—from 3.0% in April to 3.4% in July. The Fund expects global growth to reach 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, slightly higher than its earlier projections.
The improvement reflects factors such as front-loaded demand ahead of anticipated tariff hikes, softer-than-expected U.S. tariff rates, improved global financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in key economies.
Despite structural challenges, the IMF’s decision to retain Nigeria’s growth outlook signals cautious optimism about the country’s economic prospects in the context of global economic headwinds.
Image Credit: Punch Newspapers
