Nigeria’s petroleum marketers are reconsidering fuel importation after the Dangote Petroleum Refinery announced a fresh ₦49 per litre reduction in its ex-depot price of petrol, a move that is reshaping competition in the downstream oil market.
According to The Punch, the refinery’s new gantry price now stands at ₦828 per litre, down from ₦877 — a 5.6 percent decrease and the second major price cut in three months.
The adjustment, analysts say, could render petrol imports economically unviable for many marketers, especially following the Federal Government’s newly imposed 15 percent import tariff on refined fuel, which further widens the cost gap between imported and locally refined petrol.
Clement Isong, Executive Secretary of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MOMAN), confirmed that the latest pricing has shifted market dynamics, making imports unattractive.
“It would stop imports now, definitely, since imports are higher than Dangote’s price. That is the logical thing,” Isong stated.
He explained that Dangote’s pricing model reflects market realities and is based on import parity, the benchmark cost of bringing fuel into the country, which fluctuates depending on source, freight, and storage capacity.
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Industry data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) shows that Nigeria’s 30-day average import parity price for petrol stands at ₦824.10 per litre, factoring in global crude prices, freight, and exchange rates.
However, Dangote’s local pricing advantage, combined with lower logistics costs, places his refinery in a stronger position than importers who rely on fluctuating foreign exchange and higher maritime charges.
Despite the optimism, not all stakeholders believe Nigeria can immediately halt petrol imports.
The President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, warned that local production still falls short of national demand.
“Imported products currently complement the 30 to 35 percent in-country production we have been enjoying. If import stops, product unavailability will increase,” he said. Gillis-Harry noted that while PETROAN members are already buying from Dangote Refinery, some have experienced delays in product loading.
He urged the government to reconsider the 15 percent import tariff to ensure consistent fuel supply. “Dangote is reducing prices, but our members are complaining they haven’t been able to load what they paid for,” he added.
Analysts believe Dangote’s price strategy is a calculated step toward market stabilization and eventual dominance.
By lowering prices and improving local supply, the refinery could displace costly imports and strengthen Nigeria’s long-term fuel security.
Still, experts warn that a complete halt to importation, without sufficient domestic refining capacity, could trigger temporary shortages.
At the retail level, petrol prices currently range between ₦850 and ₦950 per litre across the country, reflecting a three to five percent reduction from previous rates.
As Dangote’s pricing continues to influence the market, stakeholders anticipate a new equilibrium — one that may finally tilt Nigeria’s energy landscape toward self-sufficiency after decades of import dependence.
