The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, are set to raise oil production by an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October 2025, according to Bloomberg.
Delegates revealed that the decision is expected to be ratified after a virtual meeting on Sunday.
This marks the beginning of the group’s phased reversal of 1.66 million bpd in production cuts, which had originally been scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026.
The move follows OPEC+’s recent surprise decision—led by Saudi Arabia and Russia—to accelerate the return of 2.2 million bpd of previously suspended output, a year earlier than initially planned.
However, Bloomberg notes that actual output is likely to be lower than the announced figure, as some member countries face challenges such as limited spare capacity and the need to compensate for earlier oversupply.
Analysts warn that the decision could heighten pressure on oil-dependent economies, especially those that rely on higher prices but lack the capacity to increase production.
Bloomberg also pointed out that the decision reflects ongoing tension in oil markets: while forecasters warn of a looming supply glut, markets have stayed relatively tight during the northern hemisphere summer.
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For Nigeria, the development comes at a critical time. The country’s daily crude oil output rose to 1.507 million bpd in July 2025, surpassing its OPEC quota for the second consecutive month.
Yet, persistent issues such as pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and underinvestment continue to undermine production capacity.
Meanwhile, oil prices have dipped below Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel.
As of this week, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $63.40 per barrel, while Brent settled at $67.00. The decline raises concerns for government revenue and the naira’s stability.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has repeatedly warned that underperformance in the oil sector could threaten the federal government’s ability to meet its 2025 budgetary commitments.
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