The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has projected that global oil demand will continue to rise steadily until at least 2050, countering growing international calls for a swift transition away from fossil fuels.
In its newly released annual oil outlook, OPEC forecasts that daily global oil demand will increase by 18.6%, climbing from 103.7 million barrels per day in 2024 to around 123 million barrels per day by 2050.
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, writing in the foreword, described the notion of rapidly abandoning oil and gas as an “unworkable fantasy,” and emphasized that the demand surge will be driven by economic expansion, population growth, urbanisation, and emerging energy-intensive industries like artificial intelligence.
He added that oil remains crucial for bringing energy to the billions of people currently lacking access.
“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” Ghais stated.
This stance sets OPEC at odds with the International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents many major oil-consuming nations.
The IEA recently projected that global oil demand could begin declining by 2030, spurred by the proliferation of electric vehicles and the transition to renewable energy sources for electricity generation.
The IEA even expects oil demand to decline in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, as the country shifts toward gas and renewables to meet its power needs.
Ghais defended OPEC’s position, noting that fossil fuels still account for roughly 80% of the global energy mix, nearly unchanged since the cartel’s founding in 1960.
He criticized many of the proposed timelines for achieving net-zero carbon emissions, arguing that they overlook crucial factors such as energy security, affordability, and technological feasibility.
“It has become increasingly clear to many policymakers in recent years that the narrative of swiftly phasing out oil and gas has been seen for what it is: unworkable, and a fantasy,” he said.
Climate scientists, however, continue to stress that rapid reductions in fossil fuel consumption are necessary to meet the 1.5°C global warming target set under the Paris Agreement.
Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-trims-oil-demand-next-four-years-2025-07-10/
image credit: Sarkaritel.com
